{
 "snapshot": {
  "from": "2026-09-16",
  "to": "2026-09-28",
  "games": 280703,
  "note": "Backtest: tables built from games through Sep 24, tested on held-out games from Sep 25 to Sep 28 (the last day partial)."
 },
 "stats": {
  "top1": {
   "names": [],
   "label": "Model",
   "n": 143144,
   "wins": 31921,
   "src": "calc_backtest.json opp_lead.top1",
   "kind": "rate"
  },
  "top1_base": {
   "names": [],
   "label": "Most common pair",
   "n": 143144,
   "wins": 18523,
   "src": "opp_lead.baseline_most_common_top1",
   "kind": "rate"
  },
  "top3": {
   "names": [],
   "label": "Model",
   "n": 143144,
   "wins": 67736,
   "src": "opp_lead.top3",
   "kind": "rate"
  },
  "top3_base": {
   "names": [],
   "label": "Most common pair",
   "n": 143144,
   "wins": 46135,
   "src": "opp_lead.baseline_most_common_top3",
   "kind": "rate"
  },
  "recall": {
   "names": [],
   "label": "Model",
   "n": 143144,
   "wins": 106714,
   "src": "opp_bring.recall_revealed (CI over sides)",
   "kind": "rate"
  },
  "recall_base": {
   "names": [],
   "label": "Top four by bring rate",
   "n": 143144,
   "wins": 100831,
   "src": "opp_bring.baseline_recall_revealed",
   "kind": "rate"
  },
  "exact4": {
   "names": [],
   "label": "Model",
   "n": 89686,
   "wins": 15964,
   "src": "opp_bring.exact4_full_reveal",
   "kind": "rate"
  },
  "exact4_base": {
   "names": [],
   "label": "Top four by bring rate",
   "n": 89686,
   "wins": 8368,
   "src": "opp_bring.baseline_exact4_full_reveal",
   "kind": "rate"
  },
  "rl_followed": {
   "n": 15275,
   "wins": 8498,
   "names": [],
   "label": "Led the top pick",
   "src": "rec_lead.followed"
  },
  "rl_other": {
   "n": 127557,
   "wins": 62918,
   "names": [],
   "label": "Led anything else",
   "src": "rec_lead.not_followed"
  },
  "rl_top3": {
   "n": 39441,
   "wins": 21420,
   "names": [],
   "label": "Led a top-3 pick",
   "src": "rec_lead.in_top3"
  },
  "rl_low": {
   "n": 54534,
   "wins": 25372,
   "names": [],
   "label": "Led a pair ranked 9–15",
   "src": "rec_lead.rank_9_to_15"
  },
  "rb_followed": {
   "n": 9977,
   "wins": 5471,
   "names": [],
   "label": "Brought the top four",
   "src": "rec_bring.followed"
  },
  "rb_other": {
   "n": 79709,
   "wins": 39372,
   "names": [],
   "label": "Brought any other four",
   "src": "rec_bring.not_followed"
  },
  "meta": {
   "test_games": 71572,
   "test_sides": 143144,
   "full_reveal_sides": 89686,
   "fit_games": 206526,
   "fit_until": "2026-09-24",
   "test_from": "2026-09-25",
   "mean_ll": -2.3812,
   "uniform_ll": -2.7081,
   "weight_fit_days": [
    "2026-09-23",
    "2026-09-24"
   ],
   "weight_fit_lead_sides": 100370
  }
 },
 "charts": {
  "followed": {
   "rows": [
    "rl_followed",
    "rl_top3",
    "rl_other",
    "rl_low"
   ],
   "labels": true,
   "caption": "Win rate of held-out sides by where their actual lead ranked in the calculator’s list. Observational, not causal. Bar: 95% CI."
  },
  "calib": {
   "type": "calib",
   "rows": [
    {
     "pred": 0.3514,
     "n": 1961,
     "wins": 720
    },
    {
     "pred": 0.3711,
     "n": 3411,
     "wins": 1282
    },
    {
     "pred": 0.3907,
     "n": 5841,
     "wins": 2319
    },
    {
     "pred": 0.4107,
     "n": 8436,
     "wins": 3467
    },
    {
     "pred": 0.4303,
     "n": 11898,
     "wins": 5160
    },
    {
     "pred": 0.4503,
     "n": 14855,
     "wins": 6896
    },
    {
     "pred": 0.4701,
     "n": 16460,
     "wins": 7888
    },
    {
     "pred": 0.49,
     "n": 17379,
     "wins": 8705
    },
    {
     "pred": 0.5098,
     "n": 16771,
     "wins": 8733
    },
    {
     "pred": 0.5296,
     "n": 14383,
     "wins": 7947
    },
    {
     "pred": 0.5496,
     "n": 11368,
     "wins": 6513
    },
    {
     "pred": 0.5694,
     "n": 8023,
     "wins": 4758
    },
    {
     "pred": 0.5892,
     "n": 5125,
     "wins": 3079
    },
    {
     "pred": 0.6091,
     "n": 2862,
     "wins": 1809
    },
    {
     "pred": 0.6286,
     "n": 1366,
     "wins": 873
    }
   ],
   "caption": "Calibration of the lead win-rate estimate: 2 pp bins with 1,000+ held-out sides. Hollow: the calculator’s estimate. Filled: what those sides actually won, with its 95% CI."
  }
 },
 "tables": {
  "accuracy": {
   "rows": [
    [
     "Their lead pair, top guess",
     "top1",
     "top1_base"
    ],
    [
     "Their lead pair, in top three",
     "top3",
     "top3_base"
    ],
    [
     "Their brought mons in predicted four",
     "recall",
     "recall_base"
    ],
    [
     "Their exact four (full-reveal sides)",
     "exact4",
     "exact4_base"
    ]
   ],
   "caption": "Held-out games, Sep 25–28. n is sides: 143,144 for the first three rows, 89,686 for the last. Recall is over revealed mons; its interval is computed over sides, which is wider than it needs to be."
  }
 }
}